POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Governments must take action now
Every day, more people in Canada are slipping into poverty and food insecurity. Every day, food banks wonder how much more they can handle. This is not a storm that policymakers can “wait out.” The damage is done, and people need immediate support to help them recover.
Crisis meets crisis
The state of poverty in Canada is changing rapidly. The latest data tells us that both poverty and food insecurity are not only on the rise but rising sharply. The most recent Canadian Income Survey found that 1 in 10 Canadians live in poverty, and almost a quarter (23%) experience food insecurity. These figures reflect what we have been seeing on the frontlines at food banks. Prior to the pandemic, food banks in Canada supported just over 1 million visits per month. This year, monthly food bank visits spiked to more than 2 million. It took 25 years for food bank visits to reach 1 million, but just 5 years to nearly double that rate. Demand has now reached a crisis point. Never before in Canadian history have so many people relied on food banks.
The change in food bank visits represents a significantly changed economic reality. Between 2015 and 2020, Canada saw the most dramatic and comprehensive decline in poverty on record. One in 7 Canadians (14.5%) were living below the poverty line in 2015. Five years later, that figure fell to 6.4% — less than half the former rate and a decline of about 56%.
But in 2022 — just two years after the country’s poverty rates reached that all-time low — the trend began to reverse. The poverty rate increased to nearly 10% of people in Canada between 2020 and 2022, effectively cutting progress since 2015 in half. Furthermore, the food-insecurity rate — another strong indicator of economic struggle — has increased substantially since 2021, when it stood at 15.7%.Food insecurity has now reached an all-time high, affecting a quarter of Canadians, almost 9 million people, including over 2 million children. Several factors are behind this alarming rise:
- Rapid interest rate hikes and the tightening of financial conditions to tackle decades-high rates of inflation.
- A countrywide housing supply shortage, particularly affordable housing.
- The loss of income supports like the CERB and other one-time affordability measures that the federal and provincial governments introduced to provide short-term buffers during both the pandemic and the subsequent inflationary crisis. This has led to an overall reduction in disposable income for many households, particularly those with low incomes.
- A slowdown in economic activity and a (slowly) rising unemployment rate has reduced the pressure to offer higher wages and hindered the progress made toward creating a more inclusive labour market.
- Significant and rapid population growth without the social infrastructure to absorb such an influx.
These combined factors have contributed to a high-pressure structural shift in the economic landscape, where the cost of essentials — for example, shelter and food — has outpaced wage growth. As a result, we expect that poverty rates will continue to rise as new data becomes available in the coming months and years. This means more struggling seniors, more children experiencing food insecurity, and more people across Canada worrying about making ends meet.
The rising poverty rates are not caused by a lack of effort on the part of people with low incomes. People in the two lowest income quintiles spend the majority of their household budget on essentials such as food, shelter, and transportation. Millions of Canadians now spend close to, or even more than, 100% of their income on essentials — and they still need to cover other fixed costs like internet and phone bills, debt repayment, and childcare. This means that millions of households have no income left for savings or emergencies. They are forced to focus solely on survival, making it nearly impossible to improve their circumstances.
An inadequate response
The details outlined in the previous section are will not come as a surprise to anyone in government.
In response to the current, escalating crisis, the federal government has introduced several much-needed measures to help combat some of the structural issues identified above — for example, substantial commitments to housing construction; increased immigration targets; and investments in public transit, high-speed internet, and childcare. Unfortunately, the impacts of these programs and most other government actions or initiatives will not be felt for many years. We do not know how much these changes will help people in the future, but we do know that they will not help people who are struggling today.
Even though the worst of the inflation surge appears to have passed, food prices and other costs are projected to remain high for the remainder of the year and beyond. The financial strain on many households has reached a critical point because basic necessities consume most, if not all, of their income. This results in people skipping meals, taking on unsustainable debt, and stepping further away from a life of dignity. Canadians have the highest debt burden in the G7[1], and conditions are expected to worsen.
Recent efforts to boost competition in the grocery sector are helpful for price moderation but are unlikely to bring down prices enough to make food affordable for people with low incomes.
Even when unemployment was at or near historic lows following the pandemic, incomes proved insufficient. For example, in Ontario, the hourly income needed to cover essentials is ~$8.50/hour more than the minimum wage. The effect of this gap can be seen clearly on the frontlines. In 2023, while the country was experiencing historically strong unemployment, food banks experienced their highest level of demand in history at the time. With unemployment now on the rise and the labour market tightening, conditions look set to worsen.
As governments seek solutions, they must consider what poverty-reduction strategies have been successful in the past. Extensive research shows that government transfers have historically been the most effective policy to reduce poverty. Recent estimates suggest the Canada Child Benefit (CCB) reduced food insecurity by approximately 5% (and potentially as much as 9%) while the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) was a major contributor to the sharp drop in poverty in 2021[2][3]. Similarly, the GIS/OAS programs are understood to be very effective in reducing poverty among seniors with low incomes. Unfortunately, income transfer programs in Canada have also fallen behind in recent years and food banks continue to see increasing numbers of children and seniors among their clients. Governments must ensure that programs keep pace with rising costs of living if they are to provide any real benefit.